All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Valley Kickoff |
Brown County Harrier Invitational |
Dennis Bays Invitational |
Scott Hiles Invitational |
Rick Weinheimer Classic |
Eagle Classic |
Conference Indiana |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Ted Fox Invite |
Nike XC Town Twilight |
Bedford North Lawrence Sectional |
Mater Dei Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/13 |
8/19 |
8/26 |
8/29 |
9/2 |
9/9 |
9/16 |
9/23 |
9/23 |
9/30 |
10/14 |
10/21 |
10/28 |
| Team Rating |
184 | |
245 |
264 |
255 |
362 |
256 |
246 |
243 |
207 |
904 |
208 |
255 |
207 |
273 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
210 |
264 |
255 |
338 |
256 |
246 |
243 |
207 |
184 |
208 |
255 |
207 |
273 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Valley Kickoff |
Brown County Harrier Invitational |
Dennis Bays Invitational |
Scott Hiles Invitational |
Rick Weinheimer Classic |
Eagle Classic |
Conference Indiana |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Ted Fox Invite |
Nike XC Town Twilight |
Bedford North Lawrence Sectional |
Mater Dei Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| 27 |
Jacob Mitchell |
10 |
16:03 |
15:53 |
16:08 |
15:56 |
15:45 |
16:51 |
15:37 |
15:50 |
15:55 |
15:50 |
|
15:59 |
16:25 |
16:32 |
16:34 |
| 32 |
Caleb Winders |
10 |
16:08 |
16:47 |
|
18:04 |
17:26 |
17:49 |
17:41 |
16:46 |
16:42 |
17:02 |
|
16:32 |
16:52 |
15:59 |
16:47 |
| 33 |
Caelen D'Onofrio |
10 |
16:08 |
16:56 |
16:37 |
16:24 |
16:27 |
16:52 |
16:53 |
16:39 |
16:32 |
16:23 |
|
16:33 |
16:09 |
16:11 |
16:02 |
| 95 |
Jack Holden |
11 |
16:33 |
16:34 |
16:33 |
16:45 |
16:30 |
16:51 |
16:41 |
16:24 |
16:29 |
16:21 |
|
16:17 |
16:26 |
16:35 |
17:03 |
| 117 |
Dominic D'Onofrio |
12 |
16:39 |
16:37 |
|
16:49 |
17:46 |
|
16:42 |
16:49 |
16:49 |
16:26 |
|
17:02 |
16:48 |
16:36 |
16:32 |
| 163 |
Caleb Webb |
11 |
16:48 |
16:43 |
16:30 |
|
|
|
16:51 |
16:49 |
16:51 |
17:00 |
|
16:52 |
|
|
|
| 203 |
Aden Pierce |
12 |
16:55 |
17:52 |
16:54 |
16:56 |
16:48 |
16:51 |
16:39 |
16:59 |
16:53 |
16:49 |
|
16:56 |
16:53 |
16:53 |
17:22 |
| 274 |
Reed Pierce |
12 |
17:10 |
|
16:58 |
17:38 |
17:17 |
17:03 |
17:19 |
17:00 |
16:58 |
16:53 |
|
16:34 |
|
17:25 |
17:58 |
| 276 |
Jake Gentry |
10 |
17:10 |
17:16 |
16:43 |
17:10 |
17:03 |
17:05 |
17:10 |
17:14 |
17:12 |
17:18 |
|
17:15 |
17:03 |
|
|
| 595 |
Nathan Campbell |
11 |
17:50 |
|
17:34 |
17:43 |
17:42 |
17:53 |
18:14 |
17:46 |
17:55 |
|
17:46 |
17:47 |
|
|
|
| 793 |
Jackson Walker |
9 |
18:08 |
|
18:37 |
18:16 |
|
17:53 |
18:22 |
18:10 |
18:03 |
|
18:00 |
17:58 |
|
|
|
| 920 |
Gavin Kocher |
11 |
18:20 |
|
|
18:53 |
|
18:45 |
18:31 |
18:16 |
18:09 |
|
18:02 |
18:12 |
|
|
|
| 1,403 |
Verl Burton |
11 |
18:59 |
18:05 |
19:29 |
18:52 |
|
18:43 |
19:32 |
19:18 |
18:52 |
|
18:14 |
|
|
|
|
|
Noah Somes |
10 |
19:18 |
|
19:17 |
19:26 |
|
19:35 |
19:13 |
19:23 |
19:14 |
|
19:19 |
18:57 |
|
|
|
|
Tom Keith |
10 |
19:26 |
|
|
19:10 |
|
18:56 |
19:02 |
19:16 |
19:35 |
|
19:34 |
20:16 |
|
|
|
|
Alex Zulkowski |
10 |
19:48 |
19:10 |
20:05 |
19:31 |
|
19:12 |
19:56 |
20:20 |
19:35 |
|
19:51 |
19:46 |
|
|
|
|
Lucas Sinn-Trulock |
9 |
20:20 |
|
20:39 |
20:03 |
|
20:12 |
20:04 |
20:24 |
20:25 |
|
20:25 |
20:17 |
|
|
|
|
Colton Smith |
9 |
20:26 |
|
20:27 |
20:36 |
|
20:00 |
20:00 |
|
20:56 |
|
20:35 |
20:17 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
100% |
4.2 |
194 |
7.7 |
28.1 |
17.7 |
12.8 |
9.7 |
6.0 |
5.5 |
3.5 |
2.9 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
0.1 |
| Regionals |
100% |
1.4 |
77 |
71.8 |
19.7 |
6.7 |
1.8 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.0 |
27 |
99.5 |
0.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jacob Mitchell |
100% |
29.8 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
3.3 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
|
100.0% |
| Caleb Winders |
100% |
37.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
|
99.9% |
| Caelen D'Onofrio |
100% |
37.7 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
|
99.8% |
| Jack Holden |
100% |
98.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
84.6% |
| Dominic D'Onofrio |
100% |
119.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
68.1% |
| Aden Pierce |
100% |
169.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17.8% |
| Reed Pierce |
100% |
198.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.9% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jacob Mitchell |
100% |
8.7 |
0.2 |
1.7 |
2.7 |
4.5 |
5.6 |
8.4 |
9.6 |
10.2 |
11.1 |
9.6 |
7.5 |
7.3 |
5.3 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
2.7 |
2.0 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
100.0% |
| Caleb Winders |
100% |
10.8 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.6 |
2.1 |
2.9 |
4.9 |
7.0 |
7.1 |
9.5 |
7.4 |
9.7 |
8.4 |
8.6 |
7.1 |
5.6 |
4.9 |
4.0 |
3.2 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
|
|
100.0% |
| Caelen D'Onofrio |
100% |
11.2 |
|
0.7 |
1.2 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
4.7 |
5.7 |
6.6 |
6.9 |
9.0 |
8.3 |
9.0 |
9.2 |
7.8 |
6.2 |
5.6 |
4.7 |
3.2 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
|
100.0% |
| Jack Holden |
100% |
23.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
3.7 |
4.8 |
6.0 |
6.4 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
6.2 |
6.3 |
5.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Dominic D'Onofrio |
100% |
27.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
3.1 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
5.1 |
4.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Aden Pierce |
100% |
40.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
|
100.0% |
| Reed Pierce |
100% |
50.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jacob Mitchell |
2.1 |
16.8 |
30.4 |
23.7 |
16.2 |
8.6 |
3.9 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Caleb Winders |
3.1 |
6.2 |
17.0 |
24.7 |
23.1 |
18.5 |
7.9 |
2.1 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Caelen D'Onofrio |
3.3 |
6.1 |
15.2 |
22.3 |
25.6 |
19.6 |
9.0 |
1.7 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jack Holden |
7.2 |
|
|
0.2 |
0.5 |
4.6 |
15.2 |
25.7 |
20.5 |
16.1 |
11.6 |
5.0 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Dominic D'Onofrio |
8.5 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
4.1 |
12.9 |
22.3 |
18.6 |
18.2 |
19.7 |
2.8 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Aden Pierce |
11.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.3 |
1.0 |
5.2 |
9.3 |
16.5 |
42.7 |
17.2 |
5.9 |
1.8 |
0.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Reed Pierce |
13.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.8 |
6.9 |
31.3 |
27.3 |
20.8 |
9.9 |
1.3 |
0.2 |
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
